The number of SVOD subscriptions will climb by 119 million globally this year to reach 628 million, before hitting a total of 947 million in 2024, according to Digital TV Research.
The research firm said that the gross subscription video-on-demand figure will grow by 86% between 2018 and 2024, from 508 million to 947 million – an increase of 439 million.
Over the same period of time the net subscriber count is expected to climb from 357 million to 531 million, meaning the average SVOD user will pay for 1.43 SVOD subscriptions in 2018, rising to 1.78 in 2024.
Netflix is expected to contribute 203 million subscribers in 2024, representing 21% of the global total. Amazon Prime Video is due to account for 125 million subscriptions (13%), Disney+ for 75 million (8%) and ‘other services’ for 255 million (27%).
The remaining 289 million subscriptions in 2024, representing 31% of the global market, are projected to come from China, where Netflix and Amazon are still not expected to have a presence by this date.
Overall, Digital TV Research tips 15 countries to account for more than 10 million SVOD subscriptions by 2024 – collectively providing 86% of the global total.
“China overtook the US in 2018 to become the gross SVOD subscription leader. These two countries will continue to dominate the world stage,” said Simon Murray, Principal Analyst at Digital TV Research.
“China and the US will together account for 59% of the global total by 2024. However, this proportion is down from 63% in 2018; indicating that other countries are growing faster.”
Separate Digital TV Research stats, released last week, predicted that in Western Europe alone the gross number of SVOD subscriptions will roughly double from 65.19 million in 2018 to 131.20 million in 2024 – with some 13 million subscriptions to be added this year.
About 43.4% of TV households in Western Europe are expected to have at least one SVOD subscription by 2024, up from 26.3% in 2018, with the average SVOD home set to take 1.71 subscriptions by then.
In this region, Netflix is expected to remain the largest SVOD platform “by some distance,” with 54.86 million paying subscribers expected by 2024 – or 42% of the Western European total. While this proportion is down from 54% in 2018, the platform is expected to add 20 million subscribers.
“Disney+ will make a strong and immediate impact, given its extensive brand recognition and impressive content line-up,” said Murray. “We forecast 19.18 million paying subscribers by 2024 – fast approaching Amazon Prime Video.”