Global over-the-top TV revenue will more than double between 2018 and 2024, while pay TV revenues peaked in 2016 and will decline 11% over the same period, according to Digital TV Research.
The latest stats indicate that worldwide online TV and movie revenues will climb from US$68 billion in 2018 to US$159 billion in 2024, with around US$17 billion to be added in 2019 alone.
By contrast, pay TV revenues – including subscription and pay-per view fees – are projected to fall from US$199 billion in 2018 to US$177 billion in 2024, having reached a high of US$205 billion in 2016.
In the OTT space, Digital TV Research claims that subscription video-on-demand overtook ad-supported video-on-demand to become the largest OTT revenue source in 2014, and will continue to grow to reach revenues of US$87 billion in 2024.
“Despite losing market share to SVOD, there is still plenty of AVOD growth left,” said Digital TV Research Principal Analyst, Simon Murray. “AVOD revenues will increase by US$34 billion between 2018 and 2024 to take its total to $56 billion. Several high profile AVOD-funded platforms are due to start operations soon.”
The top five countries included in the 138 country report are expected to account for 68% of global OTT revenues by 2024 – down from 71% in 2018, indicating growth at a faster rate around the rest of the world.
The US is expected to remain the dominant OTT market “by some distance” with China coming in second place. The two countries are expected to reach OTT revenues of US$61 billion and US$27 billion respectively in 2024, accounting for a combined 56% of the global market.
In the pay TV space, Digital TV Research found that subscribers are moving away from standalone packages, which are more lucrative to pay TV operators, in favour of double- and triple-play bundles.
“Subscriber growth is mainly in developing countries where ARPU is lower than the developed countries,” said Murray.
Eight of the top 10 pay TV countries are tipped to lose revenue between 2018 and 2024, with the US expected to see revenues fall by US$21 billion or 22% to US$76 billion in 2024.
In total, 51 of the 138 countries covered by the report are expected to see pay TV revenues decline over the forecast period. However, India is expected to make gains of nearly 20%, reaching pay TV revenues of US$6.32 billion in 2024.
The top 20 pay TV countries are expected to contribute 82% of pay TV revenues by 2024.