Netflix will have 7.98 million subscribers in Eastern Europe by 2024, roughly double its reach of 4.05 million subscribers in 2018, according to Digital TV Research.
The research firm’s Eastern Europe OTT TV and Video Forecasts report estimates that Netflix will account for roughly 30% of the region’s SVOD total in 2024.
Poland is expected to remain Netflix’s largest Eastern European market, accounting for a quarter of its subscribers, while Poland, Poland, Romania and Russia combined are expected to make up half of Netflix’s subscriber base in the region.
Disney+ is tipped to be Netflix’s closest rival with 2.79 million subscribers in 2024, followed by Amazon, HBO and Apple TV+ with 646,000, 572,000 and 479,000 subscribers respectively across 22 countries in Eastern Europe.
“The imminent launches of both Disney+ and Apple TV+ will further boost the sector. We forecast nearly three million subscribers for Disney+ by 2024. Apple TV+ will be more modest,” said Simon Murray, Principal Analyst at Digital TV Research.
“We believe that Netflix will thrive despite these rival launches. However, we have downgraded our Amazon Prime Video forecasts. There are no Amazon Prime countries in Eastern Europe at present, so all of its subscribers will be directly paying for the platform.”
Digital TV Research predicts that the total number of SVOD subscriptions in Eastern Europe will increase by more than 160% between 2018 and 2024, climbing from 10.02 million to 26.19 million.
The report estimates that Russia became the subscription video-on-demand leader in 2018, having overtaken Poland in terms of subscription numbers. However, it is not expected to generate more SVOD revenues than Poland until 2023 as its subscribers pay lower fees.
In 2024, Russia is expected to account for 8.77 million of the region’s SVOD subscriptions, with Poland bringing in another 6.32 million. Combined the two markets are expected to account for 58% of Eastern Europe’s total.