Disney+ will have 101 million paying subscribers by 2025 and Apple TV+ will have 27.1m paying subscribers, according to the respected forecasting company Digital TV Research. Just five global streaming services will add 257 million subscribers to the ‘OTT’ subscription total between 2019 and 2025. The five services – Netflix, Amazon, Disney+, Apple TV+ and HBO Max – will therefore double their combined total paying subscriber base.
The SVOD sector is being invigorated by the roll-outs this month of Disney+ and Apple TV+, while HBO Max will be launched in spring 2020. The 2025 subs forecast from Digital TV Research shows that Netflix will remain the runaway market leader with 235.5m subscribers, followed by Amazon with 135m. Netflix will add 70 million subscribers over the next six years, the forecast suggests. HBO Max will attract 30.1m paying subs by 2025.
In total, the five global platforms will have 529 million SVOD subscribers by the end of the forecast period. Simon Murray, Principal Analyst at Digital TV Research, says: “Competition is intense, with several platforms ‘reclaiming’ content from others and with price wars in place.”
The U.S. is by far the most important single country for these platforms, but it is also the most mature, which means that international markets are becoming increasingly significant, Murray reports. Netflix will only add 6 million subscribers in the U.S. out of its 70m new subscribers. “Only 29% of Netflix’s subscribers will be in the U.S. by 2025,” he adds.
The U.S. market will be key to the younger HBO Max, however. Murray expects the WarnerMedia service to take as many as 80% of its paying subscribers from the U.S. in 2025. This figure could be tripled if non-payers are included. Apple TV+ could also count three times its 101m subs figure if non-paying users are added to the total, Digital Research believes.