A new report published by Ampere Analysis – a media analyst firm specialising in content and next generation distribution – predicts that, in a bid to capture greater market share in Poland, Netflix will increase its content spend on local titles. Ampere Analysis forecasts that, over the next two years, Netflix could commission 16 Polish titles (including four original films) as well as expand its pre-existing catalogue of third-party local content.
Ampere Analysis based these predictions on a previously observed pattern of content spend for the SVOD service across different territorial markets. It notes that in markets that have recently seen a greater degree of market localisation, such as South Korea, Mexico and South America, Netflix tends to accelerate acquisition of third-party titles first, and then follow with small trials of local commissions, before ramping up spending with a wider rollout of original local production. This wider rollout typically proceeds with a greater proportion of film commissions, and then focuses on bringing locally produced TV shows onto the platform, which, Ampere Analysis notes, is vital for retaining subscribers.
By tracking Netflix’s commissioning activity, the analyst firm predicts the location and scale of its future content investment with regards to the Poland market, and shows that Netflix’s local commissioning process is already underway, with a sharp rise of commissioned content in Q1 2021 (four new movies and four TV shows). To compare with previous years, Netflix commissioned a total of three original series and one episode special over the entirety of 2020, and only one original series in the country in 2019.
Ampere Analysis also reports that between Q4 2019 and Q3 2020, North American commissions made up 55% of Netflix’s original titles, but this figure fell to 45% between Q4 2020 and Q3 2021, with commissioning of international content increasing at a faster pace than North American content. 3Vision – the content consultancy and showtracking service – reports that Netflix commissioned 54 foreign language original scripted TV debuts in 2020/21, compared to 44 English language TV debuts in the same year. Between 2019 and 2021, Netflix’s rate of commissioning of English language TV shows actually dropped slightly (by two shows) while foreign language commissioning increased (by three shows), according to 3Vision.
Richard Cooper, Research Director at Ampere Analysis says: “Between Q4 2019 and Q3 2021, Netflix increased the volume of original titles being commissioned, with international now the focus of activity. This strategy outstrips that of its international competitors, due to Netflix’s relative maturity and the company’s drive to acquire ever more subscribers. The increase in commissioning outside the USA underscores the importance of international markets to Netflix’s continued global expansion.”